As prices rise, housing recovery wobbles

A housing recovery that was expected to accelerate this year is instead sputtering. And no, you can't just blame the weather.

Sharp increases in home prices in much of the USA, along with higher mortgage rates, have discouraged many house-hunters. Home inventories are at historically low levels. First-time home buyers, who traditionally drive home sales, remain saddled with student debt and face still-stringent lending standards.

After bouncing back smartly in 2012 and most of 2013 following the 2006-09 real estate crash, the housing market began slowing last fall. Although an unusually cold and snowy winter hindered activity early this year, home sales and starts were disappointing again in March, even in the West and South.

First-time buyers Bill and Lauren Mensinger, who rent a one-bedroom loft in Hanover, Mass., have been looking for a three-bedroom house for about a year — a mission made more urgent by the recent birth of their daughter. With homes for sale in short supply in the Boston area, they've been outbid several times, Bill says, even for houses that needed extensive repairs.

"It's draining," says Bill, 37, an architect.

Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates have risen from 3.4% to 4.33% since the Mensingers began looking. That's forced them to drop their price limit to $315,000 from $330,000. They've also grudgingly agreed to widen their search beyond the reach of Boston's commuter rail line.

Others aren't even looking.

Lending standards, despite some easing in recent months, remain tough, especially for "people who don't have good credit scores," says economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight.

Economists still expect the housing market to gain momentum this year as job and wage growth lead to more new households, credit conditions continue to ease, and builders ramp up production. Pending home sales increased in March for the first time in nine months, and real estate brokers in several regions say sales have been picking up.

! But many analysts now say the housing recovery will take longer than they had projected. "It hasn't come back as quickly," Newport says.

He expects housing starts to finally reach 1 million this year for the first time since 2007 — almost double 2009's level. But he doesn't forecast a return to a normal annual rate of 1.5 million until the fourth quarter of 2015, several months later than he had estimated.

Meanwhile, 4.9 million existing homes are expected to be sold this year, about 3% fewer than last year, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.

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One big reason is rising prices. In February, home prices in 20 large cities were up an average 13% from a year earlier, according to the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller 20-city Index. In metro areas hammered in the housing crash, such as Las Vegas and Los Angeles, prices have soared nearly 20% or more from a year ago.

The pace of price increases has slowed recently, and U.S. home prices are still 20% below their summer 2006 peak. But combined, higher prices and mortgage rates have made home-buying 20% more expensive than a year ago, dampening sales, says Jed Kolko, chief economist of Trulia, a real estate website.

In California cities such as San Francisco and San Jose, about 35% of household income is devoted to mortgage payments — more than the historical average of a third, says Stan Humphries, chief economist of real estate firm Zillow.

"Affordability looks on par or worse than it has historically in a lot of markets," Humphries says.

Prices have been driven up by a housing inventory that remains skimpy despite moderately improved demand and more jobs. Thirty-seven percent of homeowners can't sell their houses either because they're worth less than what they owe on their mortgages or they don't have enough equity to buy another h! ouse, say! s Zillow's Humphries.

Also limiting supplies and pushing up prices are fewer distressed properties. Foreclosures and short sales made up 14% of existing home sales in March, vs. nearly 30% two years ago, Yun says. Investors who snapped up many troubled properties are now playing a smaller role.

Meanwhile, new-home supplies are rising but are still near 50-year lows, says economist Robert Dietz of the National Association of Home Builders.

The nation's largest home builders have raised prices sharply after enduring thin profit margins after the crash. In a conference call with analysts last week, Richard Dugas, CEO of Pulte Homes, said the company's average $317,000 sale price in the first quarter is up 10% over last year.

Corporate credit research firm GimmeCredit says in a report that the big builders are raising prices despite slowing sales, hurting first-time buyers and underscoring that they "apparently can be relied upon to gorge until the well runs dry."

Small builders, which make up 75% of the market, have been hindered by tight credit, labor shortages, limited lot availability and rising construction costs, Dietz says.

Ed Brady, owner of Brady Homes in Bloomington, Ill., built 150 homes a year before the downturn but now puts up 10 to 15. He says he'd like to turn out 25, but can't get loans for more than five "speculative" houses, which are sold after they're built.

A shortage of construction workers means it takes Brady up to five months to build a house, vs. three months normally.

Tight supplies are falling short of rising demand in Massachusetts, where a thriving tech sector has fueled job gains. "Buyers are wanting to lock in at very low interest rates and be done with it, because (rates) are creeping up," says Ryan Wilson, a Realtor at Keller Williams in Watertown, Mass.

Adverse winter weather discouraged some sellers from putting their homes on the market, says Peter Ruffini, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realt! ors. A b! igger problem, he says, is that many homeowners are reluctant to sell because they fear they'll be unable to find a new home. Through March, existing home sales in Massachusetts are down 4.5% vs. a year ago, while median prices are up 10%.

The Phoenix area, hit hard by the housing crash, is grappling with the opposite problem. Housing supplies are ample, in part because builders have rushed into the retirement mecca since 2012. But with prices up 14% in the past year, buyers got nervous that a new bubble might be forming, says broker Ray Sullivan of Keller Williams in Scottsdale. "People took a step back."

Overall, analysts say better days are coming — slowly. "The housing market will continue to improve" this year, Kolko says, adding, "A normal market is still years away."

Pfizer bid just latest in series of industry…

Pfizer's $100 billion bid for AstraZeneca, the biggest and latest in a series of proposed big pharma mergers, makes sense for both drugmakers, but likely won't get done unless the offer is sweetened, analysts say.

Word of a possible merger between the British-based maker of cholesterol medication Crestor and New York-based Pfizer — marketer of erectile dysfunction treatment Viagra — propelled shares of both companies Monday. Pfizer rose 4.2% to $32.04, while AstraZeneca surged 12.2% to $77.01.

"The deal makes sense because the two companies end up quite a bit stronger,'' says Seamus Fernandez, manager director for Leerink Partners Equity Research. "But at the existing price, this is clearly not going to happen.''

An earlier Pfizer bid was spurned in January.

The latest cash-and-stock offer, worth about $76.60 a share, was rejected over the weekend. AstraZeneca said in a statement Monday that the latest offer "very significantly undervalued AstraZeneca and its prospects."

AstraZeneca is undergoing a major research and development re-organization to offset expirations of drug patents. It's also been reducing costs and attempting to boost productivity of research programs.

Merger mania has been sweeping the drug industry at its strongest pace since 2009, as cash-rich companies face slowing sales and rising costs and as blockbuster medications with expiring patents face competition from cheaper generics.

Earlier this month, Valeant Pharmaceuticals offered to buy Allergan in a deal valued at more than $45 billion, while Novartis sold and exchanged business units with Eli Lilly and GlaxoSmithKline. And Mallinckrodt bought Questcor Pharmaceuticals for $5.6 billion. On Monday, Forest Laboratories — which has been offered $25 billion by Ireland's Actavis PLC — said it would offer up to $1.5 billion for Furiex Pharmaceuticals.

Pfizer said it is confident of a deal with AstraZeneca. "We believe patients all over the globe would benefit from our share commitm! ent to R&D, which is critical to the future success of the pharmaceutical industry, in the form of potential new therapies that help to fight some of the world's most feared diseases, such as cancer," Pfizer said in a statement.

Fernandez says Pfizer may have to sweeten the deal by another 15% to win approval, pushing what's already among the biggest ever bids for a drugmaker to nearly $115 billion.

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Aside from synergies and cost savings, there can also be huge tax breaks. A post-merger Pfizer would remain headquartered in New York, but would have a holding company based in Britain, where lower corporate taxes would save billions of dollars.

"The longer-term benefits you get reincorporating Pfizer in the United Kingdom and its tax system are considerable,'' Fernandez says.

Consumers aren't likely to see higher prices. "The biggest distributors don't have meaningful overlap to drive up prices,'' he says.

Still, some warn that suitors nearly always overpay for their targets.

PFIZER: More on its AstraZeneca bid

FOREST LABS: $1.5B deal for N.C.-based drugmaker

"It goes through phases," says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard and Poor's Capital IQ. At its highest points — as in the 1980s — companies seek to outdo each other in making massive purchases. "It really is keeping up with the Joneses," Stovall says.

At their best, deals can align a drugmaker's strengths with another's. At their worst, massive mergers become synonymous with failure, such as the disastrous AOL-Time Warner deal in 2000, which set an M&A record of $350 billion. The companies eventually separated.

Contributing: Associated Press

Top 10 Supermarket Stocks To Invest In 2014

Top 10 Supermarket Stocks To Invest In 2014: Cloud Peak Energy Inc(CLD)

Cloud Peak Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining operations in the Powder River Basin of the United States. It produces sub-bituminous steam coal with low sulfur content for electric utilities and industrial customers. The company owns and operates Antelope surface coal mine located to the south of Gillette, Wyoming; the Cordero Rojo surface coal mine located to the south of Gillette, Wyoming; and the Spring Creek surface coal mine located in Montana. It also owns a 50% interest in the Decker surface coal mine located in Montana. As of December 31, 2010, it had approximately 970 million tons of proven and probable reserves. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Gillette, Wyoming.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Aaron Levitt]

  Simply put, the coal stocks trio of Peabody Energy (BTU), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) could be some of the biggest bargains out all energy stocks.

• [By Reuben Brewer]

  A ready supplier
  Malaysia, which is a coal export powerhouse, is going to be there to help fill the void. However, Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE: CLD  ) notes that Malaysian coal is at the lower end of the quality spectrum, particularly compared to its U.S. Powder River Basin coal. That's a positive sign for Cloud Peak's export hopes, particularly as China looks to clean up the most obvious pollution problems related to coal. Right now, Cloud Peak exports about 5% of its coal, but it plans to increase that as U.S. ports increase their capacity.

• [By Ben Levisohn]

  Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) has gained 3.1% to %15.03 after it was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel.

  Novatris (NVS) has dropped 1.2% to $74.48 after it was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.

source ! from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/top-10-supermarket-stocks-to-invest-in-2014.html

Ford's Mulally: 'No change' in retirement plan

Ford CEO Alan Mulally says he is not leaving yet.

"No change to the plan," Mulally said this morning on a conference call with investors and media when asked about reports he is preparing to retire before year's end to pursue other interests.

When Mark Fields was named to the new position of chief operating officer in 2012, Mulally said he would remain as CEO through the end of 2014, if not longer.

Last year that premise was tested when Mulally's name was repeatedly mentioned as a top candidate to become CEO of Microsoft. The speculation, which was proving distracting at Ford by year's end, prompted Mulally to end his coy remarks and state plainly his intention was to remain with Ford through 2014.

Indications have arisen anew that Mulally will pass the baton to Fields sooner rather than later and clarity on the timing could be forthcoming next month.

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"We don't comment on speculation and have no change to the plan," Mulally said repeatedly today.

He said he and Executive Chairman Bill Ford seven years ago put a high priority on developing a robust leadership team and strong succession plan.

Mulally made the comments on a call to discuss Ford first-quarter earnings. Ford reported a $989 million profit in the first quarter, down 39% from a year ago with some warranty charges and higher expenses as the automaker kicks off its most aggressive year of product launches in 50 years.

What Will Amazon Do After Google's Big Unveil?

Next Wednesday, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) is hosting a get-together with the tech press, led by Android and Chrome head Sundar Pichai. That's less than a week away, and there's very little doubt as to what the search giant likely has in store.

The timing is just too perfect for it to be anything else. Chances are quite high that Google will unveil the newest version of Android, 4.3, while launching a second-generation Nexus 7 tablet. There's plenty of other evidence to corroborate this theory.

First off, an early build of Android 4.3 has leaked after a Google employee sold a Nexus 4 on Craigslist that was running the newest version. That's almost worse than losing a prototype in a bar, since this transaction was entirely voluntary. Android 4.3 is clearly just about ready for prime time; Google just has to officially take the wraps off.

It's now been almost exactly a year since the first Nexus 7 launched. Rivals have been cutting prices, yet Google has stood pat with its $199 tablet in the Google Play store. That hasn't stopped third-party retailers from discounting the aging tablet, though, to clear out inventory.

Speaking of third-party retailers, some leaked internal documents from OfficeMax point to a retail launch next week for the second-generation Nexus 7. At a time when rivals are cutting prices, Google seems to be going the other way, with the new model expected to price at $229 for an entry-level 16-GB model, and $269 for a 32-GB model.

This possible price increase has notable competitive implications. A tablet's most-expensive component is always the display and touchscreen assembly, usually around 40% of the total bill of materials, or BOM. Google and its primary 7-inch rival Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) are both expected to move to similarly high resolutions this year with their flagship tablets.

Any increase in Google's cost structure (via ASUS) related to the display will also likely play out at Amazon. In fact, early estimates of the Kindle Fire HD BOM were actually slightly higher than the Nexus 7. If Google has to raise prices due to pricier components, Amazon will face the decision of whether or not it does likewise. The e-tailer's favorite strategy is to undercut rivals to become a loss leader, and it could have an edge with its own upgraded models later this year if it absorbs any increase and sticks with $199.

Right now, the ball is in Google's court. After next week, Big G will pass it back to Amazon.

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Abbott Labs Earnings Have a Lot of Catching Up to Do

Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT  ) will release its quarterly report on Wednesday, and investors are getting a bit jittery about the company's prospects. With Abbott having shed its pharmaceutical division back in January, AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV  ) has been trading separately for more than six months now, and Abbott is still trying to convince investors that it has as much growth potential as the pharma side of the business.

So far, though, AbbVie has beaten Abbott in the stock-performance battle as several of the remaining parts of Abbott have suffered from slow growth and industry-specific headwinds. Can Abbott catch up and restore the portion of earnings it got from AbbVie in the past? Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Abbott Labs over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Abbott Labs

Analyst EPS Estimate	$0.44
Change From Year-Ago EPS	2.3%*
Revenue Estimate	$5.52 billion
Change From Year-Ago Revenue	3.9%*
Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters	4

Source: Yahoo! Finance. *Includes adjustments for AbbVie spinoff.

Will Abbott Labs earnings get a boost this quarter?
Analysts have kept their views on Abbott's earnings prospects largely unchanged in recent months, having kept their estimates for the June quarter and for the full 2013 year steady. The stock, though, hasn't been able to keep pace, falling 4% since early April.

The primary issue behind the ambivalence that investors have toward Abbott Labs is that the company discarded its highest-growth segment when AbbVie became a separate company. In the first quarter, the company's medical-device business saw sales in the U.S. drop almost 13% from the year-ago quarter, and Abbott's generic-drug business also saw a year-over-year drop in sales.

One more promising area of growth came from Abbott's nutritional segment, which posted a 9% rise in revenue in the first quarter. In particular, pediatric products picked up sales by 20%, with emerging markets providing a much-needed boost to the business. With Abbott having built plants in India, China, and other developing markets, the company clearly recognizes the potential in the division.

Abbott's diagnostic division has also had recent success. Last month, the company had its Realtime HCV Genotype II hepatitis-C test approved by the FDA, giving doctors the information they need to prescribe treatment regimens that are better tailored to individual patients.

Still, the big challenge for Abbott will come from the medical-device arena, where many of Abbott's peers are struggling. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) has seen double-digit percentage sales declines in its cardiovascular equipment division, with growth coming solely from its major acquisition of Synthes. Meanwhile, Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX  ) has suffered even steeper declines in sales than Abbott, as its cardiac rhythm management business in particular has seen increased pricing pressure from competition. Abbott and Boston Scientific both compete in the drug-eluting stent niche, and even though Abbott has come out with recent advances, its stent sales were down 15% in the U.S. last quarter. Still, the company sees the area as having promise, as just this morning, Abbott announced it would acquire leg-stent maker Idev for $310 million.

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When Abbott Labs releases earnings, take a close look at all the segment-specific results to see where Abbott's best growth prospects are. Management will hopefully provide some guidance on its purchases today of Idev and of cataract laser-surgery system-maker OptiMedica and how they fit into its overall strategic vision going forward. Yet without a more substantial catalyst to ramp up its future net income, it's hard to see Abbott's shares moving sharply higher from here.

One area hitting Abbott and other medical-device makers is Obamacare, but many investors still have no idea how the health-care law will affect them and their portfolios. The Motley Fool's special report, "Everything You Need to Know About Obamacare," takes a 360-degree look at how the law may impact your taxes, health insurance, and investments. Click here to grab your free copy today.

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The employment picture is looking prettier. But encouraging data released today won�� be enough to trigger a change of policy at the Federal Reserve.

That�� the opinion of Sterne Agee chief economist, Lindsey Piegza, in a note released this morning following reports that initial jobless claims fell 5,000 from 310,000 to 305,000 during the week ending Sept, 21. Piegza writes:

A continued declined in jobless claims suggest at least some improvement in the labor market or at least in the first part of the jobs equation: lower job destruction.� The second part of the equation, job creation, however, remains tepid.� Going forward, at least from the Fed�� point of view, a slower pace of layoffs is not enough to suggest sustainable momentum in the labor market or trigger a change in policy.��

The data, a proxy for layoffs, point to an improving jobs picture. Economists had anticipated a rise in new claims to 330,000. Instead, jobless claims now sit at a level last consistently seen in 2007. That signals rising confidence among employers about the economic recovery.

Top 5 Rising Stocks To Own Right Now: Magnum Hunter Resources Corp (MHR)

Magnum Hunter Resources Corporation (Magnum Hunter), incorporated in June 1997, is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration for and the exploitation, acquisition, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, primarily in the states of West Virginia, Ohio, Texas, Kentucky and North Dakota and in Saskatchewan, Canada. The Company is also engaged in midstream operations, including the gathering of natural gas through its ownership and operation of a gas gathering system in West Virginia and Ohio, named as its Eureka Hunter Pipeline System. The Company�� portfolio includes Marcellus/Utica Shales in West Virginia and Ohio, the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas, and the Williston Basin/Bakken Shale in North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada. As of December 31, 2011, its proved reserves were 44.9 million barrels of oil equivalent and were approximately 48% oil. In August 2012, the Company closed on the acquisition of 1,885 net mineral acres located in Atascosa County, Texas. With this acquisition, the Company has approximately 7,278 gross acres and 5,212 net acres located in Atascosa County, Texas.

On May 3, 2011, it acquired NuLoch Resources Inc. In April 2011, Triad Hunter, its wholly owned subsidiary, acquired certain Marcellus Shale oil and gas properties located in Wetzel County, West Virginia. On April 13, 2011, it acquired NGAS Resources, Inc. In February 2012, Triad Hunter acquired leasehold mineral interests located primarily in Noble County, Ohio.

Eagle Ford Shale Properties

Eagle Ford Shale is located in Gonzales, Lavaca, Atascosa and Fayette Counties, Texas. The Eagle Ford Shale properties are held primarily by its wholly owned subsidiary, Eagle Ford Hunter, Inc. As of February 27, 2012, the Company�� Eagle Ford Shale properties included approximately 54,000 gross (24,000 net) acres primarily targeting the Eagle Ford Shale oil window, principally in Gonzales and Lavaca Counties, Texas. As of December 31! , 2011, proved reserves attributable to the Eagle Ford Shale properties were 5.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which 94% were oil and 24% were classified as proved developed producing, and 5.4 million barrels of oil equivalent. As of February 27, 2012, its Eagle Ford Shale properties included 18 gross (10 net) productive wells, of which it operated 14.

Williston Basin Properties

The Williston Basin is spread across North Dakota, Montana and parts of southern Canada. The basin produces oil and natural gas from a range of producing horizons, including the Madison, Bakken, Three Forks/Sanish and Red River formations. As of February 27, 2012, the Company�� Williston Basin properties included approximately 413,003 gross (122,561 net) acres. As of December 31, 2011, proved reserves attributable to the Williston Basin properties were 8.9 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which 94% were oil and 42% were classified as proved developed producing, and 8.8 million barrels of oil equivalent. As of February 27, 2012, the Williston Basin properties included approximately 288 gross (98.9 net) productive wells.

The Williston Hunter United States property acreage is located in Divide and Burke Counties, North Dakota, with its primary production from the Bakken Shale and Three Forks/Sanish formations. As of February 27, 2012, its Williston Hunter United States properties included approximately 36,355 net acres in the Williston Basin in North Dakota. As of February 27, 2012, the Williston Hunter United States properties included approximately 105 gross (9.5 net) productive wells. The Company�� Williston Hunter Canada property is located primarily in Enchant, near Vauxhall, Alberta, Canada, at Balsam near Grande Prairie, Alberta, Canada and at Tableland, near Estevan, Saskatchewan, Canada. As of February 27 2012, the Williston Hunter Canada properties included approximately 107,270 gross acres (79,693 net acres). At December 31, 2011, the Williston Hunter Canada prope! rties inc! luded approximately 65 gross productive wells. As of December 31, 2011, Williston Hunter Canada had 41,797 gross (32,944 net) acres of land that is prospective for Bakken and Three Forks/Sanish oil in the Tableland field. The Enchant property consists of 10,720 acres. As of December 31, 2011, 48 wells (44.1 net) were producing on this acreage. As of December 31, 2011, the Company owned approximately 43% average interest in 15 fields located in the Williston Basin in North Dakota consisting of 151 wells, and approximately 15,000 gross (6,450 net) acres.

Appalachian Basin Properties

The properties acquired in the NGAS acquisition are held by its wholly owned subsidiary, Magnum Hunter Production, Inc. As of February 27, 2012, its Appalachian Basin properties included a total of approximately 484,412 gross (412,323 net) acres, located primarily in the Marcellus Shale, Utica Shale and southern Appalachian Basin. At December 31, 2011, proved reserves attributable to its Appalachian Basin properties were 29.9 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which 27% were oil and 59% were classified as proved developed producing, and 30.2 million barrels of oil equivalent. As of February 27, 2012, the Appalachian Basin properties included approximately 3,112 gross (2,257 net) productive wells, of which we operated approximately 88%.

As of February 27, 2012, it had approximately 58,426 net acres in the Marcellus Shale area of West Virginia and Ohio. The Company�� Marcellus Shale property is located principally in Tyler, Pleasants, Doddridge, Wetzel and Lewis Counties, West Virginia and in Washington, Monroe and Noble Counties, Ohio. As of February 27, 2012, the Company operated 33 vertical Marcellus Shale wells and 16 horizontal Marcellus Shale wells. As of February 27, 2012, approximately 63% of its leases in the Marcellus Shale area were held by production.

Other Properties

The Company�� East Chalkley field is located in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.! The fiel! d consists of approximately 714 gross acres (443 net acres). This developmental project is an exploitation of bypassed oil reserves remaining in a natural gas field located at depths between 9,300 and 9,400 feet. As of February 27, 2012, the Company operated the East Chalkley field and owned an approximately 62% working interest and an approximately 42.7% net revenue interest in the field. Other properties of the Company are located in Nacogdoches, Colorado, Lavaca, Bee, Fayette and Wharton Counties, Texas and Desoto Parish, Louisiana. As of February 27, 2012, these properties consisted of an aggregate of approximately 7,050 gross (1,188 net) acres.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Matt DiLallo]

  Magnum Hunter Resources (NYSE: MHR  )
  Topping the list with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 220% is Magnum Hunter Resources. First, I will point out that the company started at a very low base as its market cap was just $10 million as its share price bottomed out at $0.37 in 2009, when its current management team assumed leadership. However, that team has led the company to phenomenal growth in cash from operations since taking over.

• [By Matt DiLallo]

  It's been a tough year for investors of Magnum Hunter Resources (NYSE: MHR  ) . As I write this, shares are down about 18% on the year, though shares had been down by more than 37% after the company�announced that it was ditching its auditor. While the stock has slowly recovered, the company has three major action items to accomplish if it wants to win back investors.

• [By Dan Caplinger]

  Finally, Magnum Hunter Resources (NYSE: MHR  ) has lost a quarter of its value after disclosing in an SEC filing yesterday that it dismissed PricewaterhouseCoopers as its accounting firm. According to the filing, PricewaterhouseCoopers had identified several issues with the energy company, including certain deficiencies in internal controls. Magnum Hunter offered a remediation plan to address PwC's concerns, but it nevertheless replaced PwC with an accounting firm called BDO USA. Investors have grown accustomed to selling at the first hint of accounting issues, and that's clearly the case with Magnum Hunter today.

Top 5 Rising Stocks To Own Right Now: ICICI Bank Ltd (IBN)

ICICI Bank Limited (the Bank), incorporated on January 5, 1994, is a banking company. The Bank, together with its subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates, is a diversified financial services group providing a range of banking and financial services, including commercial banking, retail banking, project and corporate finance, working capital finance, insurance, venture capital and private equity, investment banking, broking and treasury products and services. It operates under four segments: retail banking, wholesale banking, treasury and other banking. Retail Banking includes exposures of the Bank, which satisfy the four criteria of orientation, product, granularity and low value of individual exposures for retail exposures. Wholesale Banking includes all advances to trusts, partnership firms, companies and statutory bodies, which are not included under Retail Banking. Treasury includes the entire investment portfolio of the Bank. Other Banking includes hire purchase and leasing operations and other items. As of March 31, 2012, the Bank had 17 subsidiaries. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2013, the Company added 348 branches and 1,475 automated teller machines (ATMs) to its network, taking its branch and ATM count to 3,100 and 10,481 respectively at March 31, 2013.

Retail Banking

The branch network serves as an integrated channel for deposit mobilization, selected retail asset origination and distribution of third-party products, as well as the focal point for customer service. During fiscal 2011, the Bank continued its focus on increasing the proportion of low-cost retail deposits in its funding base. During fiscal 2011, its retail disbursements increased as it focused on opportunities in residential mortgages, vehicle finance and construction equipment finance. The Company also continued to focus on cross-selling new products and products of its life and general insurance subsidiaries to its existing customers. As of March 31, 2013, its ATMs offer services such a! s opening fixed deposits, payment of credit card and utility bills, payment of insurance premium, mobile re-charges and ultra fast cash.

Small Enterprises

The Company offers banking solutions to small and medium enterprises across industry segments. The Company supports the growth of the small and medium enterprises sector while adopting a cluster-based financing approach for enterprises with a homogeneous profile in industries, such as infrastructure, engineering, information technology, education, life-sciences and agri-based businesses. The Company also offers supply chain financing solutions to the channel partners of large corporates.

Corporate Banking

The Bank offers a suite of corporate banking products, including rupee and foreign currency debt, working capital credit, structured financing, loan syndication and commercial banking products and services. The Company also puts in place product specific teams with a view to focus on designing financial solutions for clients spread across structured finance, project finance, loan syndication and markets. The relationship team also works with its Markets Group to assist customers in devising and executing risk management strategies to address foreign currency, interest rate and liquidity risks. Its loan syndication franchise enables the Bank to structure, underwrite and syndicate rupee and foreign currency debt with Indian and offshore investors. The Bank has built robust sector-specific syndication skills across project finance, merger and acquisition (M&A) financing and structured finance to provide optimal financing solutions.

International Banking

The Company�� international banking business is focused on meeting the foreign currency needs of its Indian corporate clients and partnering them in their global expansion, taking select trade finance exposures linked to imports to India. ICICI Bank has subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, Russia and Canada, branches in the U! nited Sta! tes, Singapore, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Dubai International Finance Centre and Qatar Financial Centre and representative offices in the United Arab Emirates, China, South Africa, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The Bank�� wholly owned subsidiary, ICICI Bank UK PLC, has 11 branches in the United Kingdom and a branch each in Belgium and Germany. ICICI Bank Canada has nine branches. ICICI Bank Eurasia Limited Liability Company has one branch.

The Company develops products and service offerings to meet the requirements of the Non Resident Indian (NRI) community. The Bank launched I-Express, an instant cross-border money transfer option for NRIs through its select partners in the Middle East. The I-Express facility offers the remitter an option of visiting any partner outlet for instant credit into the beneficiary account maintained with ICICI Bank in India, at no extra cost. The Company also launched Fixed Rupee on Money2India.com, a facility that enables NRIs to send the exact rupee amount remittance to India since the exchange rate is confirmed at the time of initiating the remittance.

Inclusive and Rural Banking

Inclusive and Rural Banking include offering credit to the rural market through the Bank's branches and dedicated field teams and financial inclusion through business correspondents. The Bank focuses on improving its product and service offerings to meet the requirements of all participants in the rural market, including farmers, traders, commission agents, small processors and other medium agri-corporates. The Bank focuses on building capacity to implement its financial inclusion plan. The Bank also focused on opening accounts for routing benefit payments under various government schemes and has received the mandate for opening accounts of individuals under these schemes in certain states.

The Bank has also identified 25 business correspondents having a network of over 7,500 customer service points, to service these cust! omers. Th! e Bank provides basic financial services to the unbanked and underbanked

population comprising small and marginal farmers, daily wage labourers, beneficiaries of government. Around 47% of the Bank�� branches are in rural and semi-urban areas

Treasury

The Bank provides provide foreign exchange and derivative products and services to customers through its Markets Group. These products and services include foreign exchange products for hedging currency risk, foreign exchange and interest rate derivatives, such as options and swaps and bullion transactions.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Selena Maranjian]

  Finally, Caxton Associates' biggest closed positions included Sprint Nextel�and JPMorgan Chase. Other closed positions of interest include India-based ICICI Bank (NYSE: IBN  ) . In April, the bank reported double-digit profit increases and rising ROE. Analysts at Zacks downgraded the bank earlier this month, though, citing deterioration of its credit quality and expected steep operating expenses.

• [By Chuck Carnevale]

  ICICI Bank Limited-ADR (IBN)

  My second featured aggressive financial is ICICI Bank Limited-ADR (IBN), an ADR (American Depository Receipt) headquartered in India. This company is the largest private sector bank in India. Current low valuation is what most attracted me to this aggressive selection. However, I believe that prospective investors should carefully consider the amount of price volatility that has historically occurred with their share price. Nevertheless, for those dividend growth investors with a stomach for risk, this company may be worth taking a closer look at.

• [By Selena Maranjian]

  Finally, Viking's biggest closed positions included News Corp.�and Schlumberger. Other closed positions of interest include India-based ICICI Bank (NYSE: IBN  ) . In April, the bank reported double-digit profit increases and rising ROE, and it recently yielded 2%. Analysts at Zacks downgraded the bank earlier this month, though, citing deterioration of its credit quality and expected steep operating expenses. ICICI is a major lender in India and is growing briskly there, and is�expanding abroad, targeting even China. Its stock is up about 29% over the past year and has averaged 20.5% annually over the past decade.

Top 10 Medical Companies To Buy Right Now: Globe International Ltd (GLB)

Globe International Limited is an Australia-based company, engaged in the design, marketing and distribution of apparel, footwear and skate hardgoods brands for the action sports and street fashion markets. The company operates in the sale of goods in the Action Sports market. The Company operates in three segments include Australasia, North America and Europe. Globe International products were sold to nearly 100 countries around the world.The Company maintains distribution business of third party owned brands for the Australian and New Zealand market operating under its Hardcore and 4 Front divisions. As of June 30, 2012, the Company�� proprietary brands include Globe, Enjoi, Blind, Dusters, Almost, Cliche, Darkstar, Speed Demons, Tensor and Gallaz. Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Inyoung Hwang]

  Glanbia Plc (GLB) rallied the most in more than two years as food and beverage shares gained. Hennes & Mauritz AB jumped 6.9 percent after reporting monthly sales that beat estimates. Edenred SA rose 7.8 percent after Raymond James Financial Inc. said margins may improve in 2014. Fresnillo Plc sank 14 percent after missing out on inclusion in a gold-miners gauge.

Top 5 Rising Stocks To Own Right Now: Precision Drilling Corp (PDS)

Precision Drilling Corporation (Precision) is a provider of contract drilling and completion and production services primarily to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in Canada and the United States. The Company operates in two segments: Contract Drilling Services, and Completion and Production Services. In Canada, the Contract Drilling Services segment includes land drilling services, directional drilling services, procurement and distribution of oilfield supplies and the manufacture and refurbishment of drilling and service rig equipment, and the Completion and Production Services segment includes service rigs for well completion and workover services, snubbing services, camp and catering services, wastewater treatment services and the rental of oilfield surface equipment, tubulars, well control equipment and wellsite accommodations. Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Lee Jackson]

  Precision Drilling Corp. (NYSE: PDS) is Canada’s leading oilfield services firm, which provides contract drilling, well servicing and strategic support services to its customers. The company was formed as a private drilling contractor in the early 1950s and has grown on the back of fleet expansion and acquisitions, most notably the $2 billion purchase of Grey Wolf in 2008. The company pays investors a 2.1% dividend. The Jefferies price objective goes from $11 to $13. The consensus stands at $12.78. The stock closed Friday at $10.39.

Top 5 Rising Stocks To Own Right Now: STAAR Surgical Company(STAA)

STAAR Surgical Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of implantable lenses for the cataracts and refractive surgery. It offers intraocular lenses (IOL) that include silicone Toric IOL, which is used in cataract surgery to treat preexisting astigmatism; Preloaded Injector, a three-piece silicone or acrylic IOL preloaded into a single-use disposable injector; Aspheric IOLs that provide a clearer image than traditional spherical IOLs; and nanoFLEX IOL, a single-piece collamer aspheric IOL. The company also provides implantable collamer lenses (ICL) comprising VISIAN ICL and VISIAN Toric ICL to treat refractive disorders, such as myopia, hyperopia, and astigmatism. In addition, it sells surgical products and other related instruments, as well as manufactures AquaFlow device for the treatment of glaucoma. The company markets its products to health care providers, including surgical centers, hospitals, managed care pro viders, health maintenance organizations, group purchasing organizations, and government facilities primarily under the STAAR, Visian, Collamer, nanoFLEX, nanoPOINT, CentraFLOW, AquaPORT, Epiphany, and AquaFlow names. It distributes its products through directly employed representatives, independent sales representatives, and local distributors in the United States and internationally. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Monrovia, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jake L'Ecuyer]

  Leading and Lagging Sectors
  Monday morning, the healthcare sector proved to be a source of strength for the market. Leading the sector was strength from Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SRPT) and STAAR Surgical Company (NASDAQ: STAA). In trading on Monday, basic materials shares were relative laggards, down on the day by about 0.45 percent.

Why Corrections Corporation of America's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE: CXW  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Corrections Corporation of America generated $243.8 million cash while it booked net income of $306.2 million. That means it turned 13.9% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds pretty impressive. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Corrections Corporation of America look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

Corrections Corporation of America's issue isn't questionable cash flow boosts, but items in that suspect group that reduced cash flow. Within the questionable cash flow figure -- here a negative-- plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) constituted the biggest reversal. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF also came from other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) which represented 43.5% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

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Can your retirement portfolio provide you with enough income to last? You'll need more than Corrections Corporation of America. Learn about crafting a smarter retirement plan in "The Shocking Can't-Miss Truth About Your Retirement." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Corrections Corporation of America to My Watchlist.

Why MGE Energy's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on MGE Energy (Nasdaq: MGEE  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, MGE Energy generated $37.8 million cash while it booked net income of $71.0 million. That means it turned 6.8% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at MGE Energy look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 22.4% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, MGE Energy investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 27.3% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 74.8% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Can your retirement portfolio provide you with enough income to last? You'll need more than MGE Energy. Learn about crafting a smarter retirement plan in "The Shocking Can't-Miss Truth About Your Retirement." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add MGE Energy to My Watchlist.

Google Earnings Impacted by Nest: What Wall Street's Saying

Updated from 10:18 a.m. to include thoughts from Deutsche Bank analyst.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- First-quarter earnings for Google (GOOG) missed Wall Street estimates, but pending any further hiccups it looks like the gravy train is continuing, at least for now.

Mountain View, Calif.-based Google (GOOGL) reported first-quarter results that missed analysts' estimates, as the company earned $6.27 a share on a non-GAAP basis, generating $12.19 billion in revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs (TAC). Google site revenue of $10.47 billion rose 21% from last year's first quarter and accounted for 68% of Google's revenue. Including TAC, Google generated $15.45 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting Google to earn $6.40 a share on $15.52 billion in revenue, including TAC. Analysts surveyed by Estimize were expecting earnings of $6.19 a share on $12.87 billion in sales, excluding TAC.

Google, which split its stock during the quarter to now include both Class A shares and Class C shares, was trading lower in Thursday trading. GOOG shares were falling 3.9% to $534.75, while GOOGL was off 3.9% to $542.00.

The company noted cost-per-click (CPC), a key advertising metric, remained flat from the previous quarter, as it appears Google's initiative to bundle advertising buying on various platforms, known as enhanced campaigns, is working. However, CPCs still fell 9% year over year. Paid clicks, which include clicks related to ads served on Google sites and the sites of its network members, increased approximately 26% year over year, but fell 1% sequentially.

On the earnings call, Nikesh Arora, Google's senior vice president and chief business officer, noted CPCs will start to move higher as more advertisers begin to understand mobile devices. He noted that in the medium to long term, mobile ad pricing will be better than desktop because more will be known about the user and the context of what they're doing for what they're searching. Additionally, Google is working to making its payment enabling system easier, which should cause CPCs to rise. But getting advertisers to focus on the mobile side as opposed to desktop is a much harder initiative and will take some time. Chief Financial Officer Patrick Pichette noted this was a particularly expense-heavy quarter, led in large part by the Nest acquisition, as Google spent more than $3 billion for the smart thermostat and fire alarm company. That impacted somewhat the company's earnings.

"The one-time M&A deal costs are largely stemming from the Nest deal, which was a pretty large transaction for us this quarter," Pichette said on the call. "But I think that the best way to describe it is that our expenses in Q1, they are completely in line with our objectives if you'd kind of take apart these two items, so that's how I would describe it." Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Graham (Buy, $700 PT GOOG) "Amidst an Internet sector correction that has been driven mostly by sentiment and valuation, Google reported solid Q1 results (especially for core revenue/margins) that should lend some stability to the stock and the sector. We believe the key number is 21% for Web sites revenue growth, which provides the foundation for our BUY thesis: 1) ~20% revenue growth with slight operating leverage leads to >20% EPS growth for a few years, with a bigger acceleration this year; 2) undemanding valuation; 3) sale of MMI creates margin expansion that should help the stock screen well; still largely-undiscounted potential from YouTube, mobile ad pricing reaching (higher) maturity, and other adjacent businesses."

Stock quotes in this article: GOOG, GOOGL 

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Jefferies analyst Brian Pitz (Buy, $700 PT GOOG)

"We are buyers on the dip given the EPS miss was attributed primarily to discrete one-time expenses. Solid top-line trends reflected continued positive contributions from a range of products including PLAs / Search, YouTube, and Android / Google Play. Google now trades at 14x (ex-cash) our new '15 EPS estimate; we think this is a reasonable multiple given our belief Google remains best positioned against a number of secular growth trends."

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Youssef Squali (Buy, $630 PT GOOG) "We're maintaining a BUY rating and adjusting our PT to $630 from $650, following 1Q:14 results, which came in 1% and 2% shy on the top and bottom lines, respectively. While the business is arguably becoming more capital intensive, Google continues to gain market share with gross revenue growing at +21% (ex. FX) and EBITDA margins of 50%. We believe that Google remains one of the best plays on global online advertising growth, and at 12.5x EV/EBITDA/20.9x P/E on our FY:14 estimates, we continue to find the stock compelling." Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju (Outperform, $735 PT GOOGL) "Despite the mixed set of financial results, we believe the most important takeaways from the 1Q14 report was the positive inflection in the CPC decline rate, which was -9% YOY (vs -11% in 4Q13) on what were tougher comps coupled with continued strong volume growth. We believe this is one of the first fledgling signs of the benefits Google is set to realize from the pricing convergence between mobile and desktop on the back of products such as Enhanced Campaigns, App Indexing, as well as tools to help advertisers make cross-device attributions. As such our investment thesis remains unchanged and we reiterate our Outperform rating." UBS analyst Eric Sheridan (Buy, $665 PT GOOG)
"Into the earnings print, most investors were looking for strong/stable revenue growth & stable margin trends. Google's report delivered on revenue expectations but fell short on margins. Investors were left confused about the impact of one-time and recurring opex from recent M&A activity (notably the Nest transaction that closed on Feb 7th). Based on our calculations, the one-time items likely caused a 50-100bps drag on Google's operating margins (a normalized result slightly below Street ests). Despite this upward pressure on opex and capex, we think investors will continue to view Google as a solid risk/reward at current levels. In our view, Google is the best positioned stock in our coverage universe for exposure to a full range of secular growth trends at a very reasonable valuation on both EV/EBITDA and P/E on our 2015 estimates." Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Sandler (Buy, $625 PT GOOG) "Google's 1Q results were broadly in-line with consensus, with net revenue of $12.2B (-2% q/q) and core EBITDA of $6.01B. The tone of the conference call was upbeat and consistent, highlighting the solid growth in Google Websites (+21% y/y), Licensing/Other (+48% y/y), and ROW (+30% y/y), with laggards UK (+11% y/y) and Network Sites (+4% y/y). Overall, we continue to view Google as a top idea, and a safe-haven during times of high volatility in consumer Internet. Maintain Buy." -- Written by Chris Ciaccia in New York >Contact by Email. Follow @Chris_Ciaccia

Stock quotes in this article: GOOG, GOOGL 

What's in Store for Lululemon?

Back in March, things fell apart for lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU  ) . The company had to pull product off the shelf, after it determined that the fabric in many of its pants was too sheer. That news hammered the stock, sending it down 8% in the week after the announcement. Lululemon jumped to make good on the bad news, and now it seems to have turned itself around. With first-quarter earnings coming out next week, what should investors be on the lookout for?

Product issues addressed
Since the 8% drop, Lululemon has rebounded like a Super Ball, up 30%. The company took relatively quick action, pulling the affected products, addressing customer issues, and removing the company's chief product officer in early April. The quick turnaround from shamefaced admission to triumphant return meant that competitors didn't have a chance to capitalize on the bad news.

Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) and Gap (NYSE: GPS  ) both had a chance to make something of Lululemon's bad news, but neither acted quickly enough. As a result, Lululemon is likely to see less damage to its top and bottom lines in next week's earnings announcement. The company initially announced an impact on comparable sales of between 3% and 6%. I would be surprised if the damage was that bad, and the original comparable sales increase of 11% no longer seems out of reach.

Competition on the horizon
With its biggest 2013 issue behind it, Lululemon and investors can now look forward to the rest of the year. That means readdressing the threat that competitors pose. Gap has a specific yogawear brand, Athleta, and also carries similar clothing at its Gap and Old Navy stores. Under Armour also has a huge yogawear line -- its Studio collection -- which has driven growth for the women's business.

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Both Gap and Under Armour are making moves into new international markets, while Lululemon has been dragging behind. On the company's last call, it said that it was going to focus on the U.K. and Hong Kong in 2013. So far, the business has been slow to expand internationally, as Lululemon uses a very conservative expansion model.

In addition to its two focal areas, Lululemon is going to start "establishing local community connections and introducing [its] beautiful product to guests in a variety of markets in Europe and Asia." The time that those connections take to build means that Under Armour and Gap have a chance to move more quickly.

Gap, especially, has the brand-name strength to make quick moves internationally. Its Old Navy brand is diving headfirst into Japan, opening nine stores in the country last quarter. That gives it a jump on yoga distribution, and it puts Lululemon on the back foot.

The bottom line
While I'm expecting good things from Lululemon next week -- and for the rest of the year -- I'll be keeping an extra-close watch on the company's expansion plan. Lululemon has the upper hand in North America, by virtue of being the first mover; if it wants to replicate its success overseas, it needs to move faster. Next week, I'll be looking for speed.

Lululemon has the potential to grow its sales by 10 times if it can penetrate its other markets like it has in Canada, but the competitive landscape is starting to increase. Can Lululemon fight off larger retailers and ultimately deliver huge profits for savvy investors? The Motley Fool answers these questions and more in its most in-depth Lululemon research available. Thousands have already claimed their own premium ticker coverage; gain instant access to your own by clicking here now.

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Can Starbucks Stock Keep Growing?

In the past 25 years, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX  ) has transformed itself from a local roaster and coffee shop chain in Seattle to a globally recognized brand with more than 18,000 cafes worldwide. This transformation has created a company with annual revenue of more than $13 billion. Nevertheless, Starbucks has continued averaging double-digit revenue growth. As a result, Starbucks stock has managed to maintain a generous P/E ratio above 30. Can the company keep growing fast enough -- and long enough -- to justify this valuation?

While Starbucks is already the biggest name in the coffee business, the company still has three big growth opportunities. First, it can expand geographically, by adding new cafes in underserved areas. Second, it will expand its reach beyond coffee. Third, it will expand its consumer packaged goods business, leveraging its global brand awareness. These three growth initiatives create significant upside for Starbucks stock over the next five to 10 years.

Starbucks keeps growing
While Starbucks already operates more than 18,000 cafes, the vast majority of these are in the Americas, and particularly the U.S. Nevertheless, the company continues to see opportunities to expand in its core markets, and plans to open more than 3,000 cafes in the Americas over the next five years, with more than half of those in the U.S. Domestic expansion has not caused any significant cannibalization of existing stores, as Starbucks continues to post healthy same-store sales growth.

Eventually, the company will saturate the U.S. market with its signature cafes. Fortunately for Starbucks stock owners, the company has plenty of room for growth overseas. China is the biggest opportunity: Starbucks plans to make this the company's biggest market outside the U.S. by doubling the number of cafes it operates in China to 1,500 by 2015.

At an investor conference last year, CEO Howard Schultz stated that while it took Starbucks 10 years to really connect with native Chinese customers, the company now has strong momentum there. One tool that has helped it connect with customers there has been localization of product offerings. Looking forward, Starbucks wants to use its portfolio of tea brands to capitalize on the popularity of tea in China and other Asian markets, thereby strengthening its popularity overseas.

Tea and crumpets
Starbucks has always had tea offerings, but the company made a big move to boost its tea profile last year with the acquisition of Teavana. For Starbucks stockholders, the Teavana acquisition is great news because it gives the company an opportunity to grow in a new market that is similar in size to the global coffee market.

While Teavana has traditionally focused on selling loose-leaf teas, Starbucks intends to open "tea bars" within Teavana shops to provide a Starbucks-like experience. Teavana beverages may also be sold inside regular Starbucks cafes.

The company is already increasing its non-coffee offerings within its cafes. In late 2011, it purchased Evolution Fresh, a fruit and vegetable juice maker. By the end of this year, bottled Evolution Fresh juices will be available in most U.S. Starbucks locations, replacing PepsiCo's Naked Juice.

Most important, Starbucks is in the midst of significantly upgrading its food offerings. Last year, the company bought La Boulange, a Bay Area bakery. Food currently represents just 19% of sales in domestic Starbucks cafes, and executives expect that La Boulange will open the door to offering a bigger selection of baked goods and sandwiches, while improving food quality.

Increasing food sales will allow Starbucks to leverage its fixed costs, like rent and utilities. On the other hand, food sales usually carry a lower gross margin than beverages. Nevertheless, Starbucks management expects the net effect to be higher operating margins and higher profit.

Beyond the cafe
The last, and potentially biggest, opportunity for Starbucks is consumer packaged goods. Starbucks believes that its "channel" business could one day be as big as its cafe business, despite representing less than 10% of revenue today. If this vision eventually comes to fruition, Starbucks stock will be a bargain at today's prices.

Starbucks plans to build all of the brands that it owns -- including its recent acquisitions -- into well-known, highly respected franchises. It is already the leading premium packaged coffee brand, but management wants to grow the company's packaged coffee market share while also creating a major presence in the tea and juice markets. The CPG channel offers higher margins than the cafe business, so it could become a significant profit driver for Starbucks as it grows.

Foolish conclusion
While Starbucks already seems ubiquitous, it actually has significant growth opportunities ahead. Starbucks stock does fetch a valuation premium to the market, but it has a talented management team lead by Schultz. There may be some bumps along the road, but the company's initiatives to diversify into new geographies (especially China), new product lines (tea, juice, and baked goods), and new distribution channels will position it for growth. For long-term investors, Starbucks stock looks like a solid investment opportunity.

More advice and analysis from The Motley Fool
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How Apple Will Force Sirius to Face the Music

NEW YORK (TheStreet) - Shares of Sirius XM (SIRI) closed Friday at $3.16, down 1.25% for the week. Shares are down almost 10% year to date.

The stock benefited from a couple of catalysts this week. First, Sirius added two new channels to its growing lineup, one being Raw Dog Sirius XM Comedy Hits. The other catalyst, and perhaps more important, Sirius received upgrades from Standard & Poor's and Moody's on the company's 5.25% senior notes.

Moody's upgraded the notes from B1 to Baa3 while Standard & Poor's raised its rating to BBB from BB. These notes were coming due 2022, on which Sirius had granted liens. Now, aside from granting Sirius more liquidity options, these ratings don't materially address my concerns about its future. But all of that can change.

It's been pointed out that my recent Sirius discussions have been too bearish. I've been told that "I'm not seeing the forest for the trees." What I do see, however, is a company being attacked from all angles, especially from Apple (AAPL). Apple is now in the automobile dashboard. And it won't be just a drive-by. Sirius' first-to-market advantage has no bearing on its fate. Given Apple's recent agreement with National Public Radio (NPR), Apple is gearing up to give Sirius a run for its money. And I mean that literally. We've all heard, "Content is king." As such, Sirius investors have never taken Apple seriously. Likewise, Pandora (P) has always been referred to as a "jukebox." But with NPR in the mix, Apple is now breaking away from its "music-only" status. Plus, very few people aware that has entered the realm of concert sponsorships. The company is promoting a live music event for Maroon 5 on June 20. This is in addition to Apple's international expansion plans. iTunes Radio is now available in New Zealand and Australia. This means Sirius will need to add more than a few new channels to keep its subscribers from fleeing. There's more to Apple these days than its entry into the automobile. While Pandora has already laid its own ground work, it, too, is on the verge of death. But a Sirius/Pandora union can tackle Apple together. A Pandora acquisition by Sirius should be done for the same reasons Sirius merged with XM. Its life depends on it.

Stock quotes in this article: SIRI, AAPL, P, GOOG, MSFT 

When Pandora released its audience metrics for March, it showed the company's share of total U.S. radio listening grew 13% year over year to 9.11%. Last year, Pandora had 8.05% share. While reporting that it had 75.3 million active listeners, Pandora also achieved a landmark of 250 million registered users in the U.S.

Pandora's music genome platform, which gives listeners the ability to customize their music, has helped turned Pandora into a sticky service. This means that Americans love their jukebox. The problem is Pandora doesn't know how to make money. The more it grows in popularity, the more money it has to shell out in royalties.

Likewise, Sirius' main issue is that its business model is too closely tethered to auto sales. By contrast, Pandora's personalized music service can be accessed from a variety of ways, including tablets, PCs, smartphones and most car audio systems -- pretty much, anything with an internet connection. But Pandora also has a growing subscription service and the ability to grow advertising revenue.

As royalty fees continued to chew through the company's bottom line, Pandora hopes to mitigate this by raising the subscription service. The other potential growth area is advertising. Advertising revenue can become that dominant second stream of revenue Sirius lacks. Sirius has also talked about the connected car. Its acquisition of Agero has excited investors. But Sirius is a radio/entertainment company. I don't see how Sirius can out-innovate Apple or Google (GOOG) in an area where technological advantages are required. Not to mention expensive capital investments. Sirius will not outspend Apple or Google. But if it does buy Pandora, Sirius will raise its own acquisition profile. Its entertainment offerings immediately become more attractive. It's not out of the question that Microsoft (MSFT) would become interested. And with Pandora stock in a freefall, now is the time for Sirius to face the music and make the deal. At the time of publication the author had a position in AAPL. Follow @Richard_WSPB This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

Stock quotes in this article: SIRI, AAPL, P, GOOG, MSFT 

Citigroup earnings: here’s what investors can expect

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup Inc. (C)  will release its first-quarter earnings on Monday at 8 a.m. Eastern. This is what investors can expect:

Earnings: The nation's third-largest bank by assets is expected to report net income of $3.56 billion, or $1.14 earnings per share, down from $3.8 billion, or $1.29 a share in the year-earlier period, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet.

/quotes/zigman/5065548/delayed/quotes/nls/c C 45.68, -0.55, -1.19% Citi shares got knocked this year

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Revenue: The bank is expected to report a decline in revenue. The consensus estimate is $19.47 billion for the quarter, compared to $20.5 billion a year ago.

Stock react: Shares are trading at $45.68, down 12% year-to-date and 17% below their 52-week high. Shares have lagged the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , which tracks financial stocks in the S&P 500 (SPX) and is down 2.7% year-to-date. Analysts have an average price target of $58.06, according to FactSet. Rival J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)  shares fell 3.7% after it reported earnings Friday.

Key issues: Citigroup warned investors this week that it may miss a key profitability target, after the Federal Reserve rejected its latest capital plan. The bank was referring to its target for return on tangible common equity, a figure that lets investors compare its profitability with that of its peers.

Legal issues: Watch for comments on legal expenses following some recent settlements, and for any news on the fraud case at its Mexican unit, Banamex.

Citi Holdings: Citi's "bad bank" has been a drag on earnings and management has worked hard to reduce its impact. Citi Holdings currently accounts for just 6% of all Citigroup assets.

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Big Pharma's Biggest Grudge Match

They compete in the diabetes market. The same holds true for the cardiovascular, neuroscience, oncology, and osteoporosis markets. Their animal health units go head to head. You might even say that Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) and Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) are engaged in big pharma's biggest grudge match.

Which of these two rivals makes the best investing choice right now? Let's look at how Lilly and Merck stack up.

Apples to apples
There truly are plenty of areas for apples-to-apples comparisons between the two pharmaceutical companies. Merck's animal health unit stands as the larger of the two, pulling in $840 million in revenue during the first quarter versus $499 million for Lilly. Both units grew sales roughly 2% year-over-year. Lilly's animal health business comprises around 9% of total sales, while Merck's makes up nearly 8% of total sales.

Both Lilly and Merck do quite well in diabetes. Lilly's Humalog generated $633 million in sales last quarter, with Humulin garnering nearly $312 million. The company also launched Tradjenta in 2011. Lilly's U.S. patent for Humalog expires this month, but no biosimilars have yet emerged.

Merck, meanwhile, pulls in even higher sales figures. In the first quarter, diabetes drugs Januvia and Janumet racked up combined revenue of nearly $1.3 billion. While Merck's sales numbers were higher, Lilly's growth numbers looked better last quarter.

Lilly is arguably better positioned for the future in terms of products on the way. The company counts three diabetes drugs in late-stage trials plus empagliflozin in regulatory review. Merck has one diabetes drug in a late-stage study.

What about other therapeutic areas where both companies compete? Merck again outscores Lilly in cardiovascular-related revenue. Its Zetia and Vytorin combined for slightly more than $1 billion in sales last quarter. Lilly's Effient and other cardiovascular drugs brought in nearly $694 million. However, Merck's cardiovascular revenue declined slightly last quarter, while Lilly saw more than 8% sales growth for the therapeutic category.

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Lilly's biggest area is neuroscience, accounting for $1.85 billion in sales for the first quarter. Merck trails behind significantly, with products like Maxalt and Remeron bringing in less than $100 million in sales during the quarter.

However, Lilly faces declining sales from Zyprexa. The company also loses patent exclusivity for Cymbalta at the end of this year. Lilly's antidepressant edivoxetine and Alzheimer's disease drug solanezumab are in late-stage trials, but neither seems likely to make up for the revenue loss from Zyprexa and Cymbalta.

Merck awaits regulatory decisions for insomnia drug suvorexant and neuromuscular blockage reversal drug sugammedex. The company has a drug targeting Parkinson's disease in a late-stage study.

Lilly claims a lead in oncology, too. Its cancer drugs, primarily Alimta and Erbitux, notched sales of $764 million during the first quarter. Merck made $332 million from Temodar and Emend. Both companies also have promising cancer drugs in late-stage studies.

In osteoporosis, Lilly again claims an advantage. Its Forteo and Evista combined for more than $522 million in sales during the first quarter. Merck's Fosamax generated sales of $137 million during the same period.

Apples to oranges
Despite several overlapping markets, Lilly and Merck focus on other areas that set the two companies apart.

Merck's respiratory products, including Singulair and Nasonex, brought in $830 million in revenue last quarter. Lilly doesn't market any comparable respiratory drugs.

Vaccines also make up a significant portion of Merck's revenue. Its vaccines, with Gardasil leading the way, generated more than $1.1 billion in the first quarter. Lilly doesn't compete in the vaccine market.

However, Lilly makes products targeting some therapeutic areas that Merck does not. For example, Lilly's Cialis, which is used to treat erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia, saw sales of $515 million during the first quarter. The company's attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder drug Strattera garnered nearly $167 in revenue during the period.

There's also the matter of size. Merck's market cap of nearly $140 billion doubles that of Lilly.

Grudging opinion
Who wins out in this hypothetical grudge match? I'd go with Merck.

Lilly has a huge challenge before it with several of its top drugs losing patent protection. The company counts plenty of drugs in its pipeline, but it will have a steep hill to climb in making up for lost revenue. Merck faces revenue decline related to expiring patents as well, but it shouldn't feel the brunt quite as much as Lilly.

Looking back over the last year, there's no question that Lilly's stock has performed better. However, the two companies' valuations now appear to be nearly mirror images. Lilly's trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 13 with a forward multiple of 20. Merck has a trailing P/E of 23 and a forward multiple of 12. Merck is much more attractively valued looking ahead.

Merck offers one more bonus. It's dividend yield of 3.7% narrowly beats the 3.5% yield of Lilly. All things considered, I think this grudge match goes to Merck.

Can Merck beat the patent cliff?
This titan of the pharmaceutical industry stumbled into 2013 and continues to battle patent expirations and pipeline problems. Is Merck still a solid dividend play, or should investors be looking elsewhere? In a new premium research report on Merck, The Fool tackles all of the company's moving parts, its major market opportunities, and reasons to both buy and sell. To find out more click here to claim your copy today.

Top 5 Forestry Companies To Watch In Right Now

Top 5 Forestry Companies To Watch In Right Now: Yamana Gold Inc.(AUY)

Yamana Gold Inc. engages in gold and other precious metals mining, and related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation. It also explores for copper, molybdenum, zinc, and silver metals. The company's portfolio includes 7 operating gold mines namely Chapada; El Pen Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jim Jubak]

  In this context, I can't say whether this is the time to start buying shares of Yamana Gold (AUY). If gold moves lower, so will the shares of gold miners. Those shares have, by and large, outperformed gold itself in 2014.

• [By Paul Ausick]

  Shares of Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) have bounced about 23% off their 52-week low of $8.31 set on December 2. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday, missing estimates and cutting the dividend by nearly 35%, from an annual level of $0.26 to $0.15. The company also wrote down $574.2 million in impairment charges for 2013, virtually all of it in the fourth quarter.

• [By Jim Jubak]

  I'll be doing exactly that kind of pruning and buying, in another week or so, with the two gold mining stocks, Goldcorp (GG) and Yamana Gold (AUY) that I own in my Jubak's Picks portfolio.

source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/top-5-forestry-companies-to-watch-in-right-now.html

Gurus Lose Faith in This Under-Pressure Railway

Across history, bread has been the reason for many revolts. For example, the price of bread rose to about a month's pay before the French Revolution of 1789. Before then, Roman emperors used bread to appease the masses and buy their loyalty. Today, a rapidly growing world population is far from a massive revolt, but the phenomena places additional pressure to those involved in the process of delivering the goods. In other words, what value is there in a greater production if the goods never reach the consumer?

It is in that sense that railroad companies have turned into a key link in the wheat production chain. Hence, Canada National Railway (CNI) is under heavy pressure to deliver, under a context aggravated by additional successes. Most importantly, gurus seem to have lost faith on the company, and those with the largest position continue to reduce their holdings.

Growing Through Absorption of Market Trends

The 2013 annual report's title, "Becoming a True Supply Chain Enabler: Making Connections," by Canada National Railway, says a lot about where management is aiming to take the company. The strategy is three-pronged: a fresh approach to the transborder food supply chain, connecting energy partners and suppliers, and intermodal. Such business strategies aim at absorbing current long-term market synergies unleashed by the food and energy industries, and the transportation industry as a whole.

First, Canada National Railway is one of the main transporters of harvested crops in Canada. Most recently, the company is offering a Fleet Integration Program for grain, oilseed and special crop shippers who wish to enter agreements to supply privately owned, covered hopper cars for integration to the Western Canadian common fleet. The program was strengthened by the need to move a record wheat harvest, reporting to have moved an excess of 4,000 hopper cars weekly.

The transported volume has given Canada National Railway an additional incentive to deepen the communication with grain elevator companies. In line with this, Claude Mongeau, CN president and chief executive officer, said: "We are continuing to make significant progress toward our goal of transporting close to 5,500 grain cars per week to meet the Canadian government's Order in Council of March 7, 2014. But CN can only meet its commitment if all other key players in the supply chain are equally held to account for their performance." Hence, the Canadian government began talks with grain elevator companies to improve transportation integration.

Last, the boom of unconventional exploration and production in the oil & gas industry has prompted a greater demand for shipping. Canada National Railway became particularly concerned with the trend due to its unique access to the Wisconsin sand deposits and direct reach to Western Canada oil and gas and other key North American shale plays through Class I railroad connections. Throughout 2013, the firm moved over 55,000 carloads in 2013 generating $200M in revenue, a 50% increase versus 2012.

Prospects for Growth

Canada National Railway made sure to close an agreement with union representatives to avoid strikes, while at the same time taking significant steps to strengthen the railway's Safety Management System. Safety improvements will focus on accident prevention, car robustness and emergency response. For that purpose, management has allocated C$2.1 billion in capital investments for 2014. Such steps will secure the company an effective absorption of developed market synergies in the long-term.

Lower coal shipments have negatively affected overall performance of Canada National Railway. Additional risks derived from high competition, unionized workers, fuel volatility prices and higher depreciation expenses. Nonetheless, the company remains well positioned in the market, and has successfully negotiated with unions. Most importantly, the company's stock trades at 20 times its trailing earnings, carrying a very small premium to the industry average. Also, revenue and net income has increased year-over-year since 2009, and has seen a small decline during 2013 due to abnormal weather conditions.

It is recommendable to acquire Canada National Railway for a long-term investment, given the current trends developed in the grain and oil and gas industries. These trends will have a long-term impact on overall performance, helping to overturn current small difficulties.

Disclosure: Vanina Egea holds no position in any of the mentioned stocks.

About the author:Vanina EgeaA fundamental analyst at Lone Tree Analytics

Visit Vanina Egea's Website

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