Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM ) returned 146% in stock price increases and dividends over the last five years. That's an average of nearly 30% per year. Clearly, investors who owned Philip Morris for any significant length of time during the last five years made out pretty well. Unfortunately, two new developments have emerged to make future returns less certain. All Philip Morris investors need to know about these two things before deciding whether to hold or sell their stock.
Persistent currency headwinds
Philip Morris' stock price ended last week nearly 7% lower than it began after the company issued a press release warning that its 2014 performance would not be as good as was previously anticipated. In the release, CEO Andre Calantzopoulos cited currency headwinds and weak economic conditions as the primary factors for lowering 2014 earnings per share guidance to $4.87 to $4.97 instead of the previously announced $5.09 to $5.19.
Currency headwinds are nothing new for Philip Morris. The company's 2013 results were negatively affected by a weak euro and Asian currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. Philip Morris derives 61% of its revenue from the European Union and Asia, making currencies in these regions important drivers of dollar-denominated profits. Unfavorable exchange rates lowered earnings by 6% in 2013, and a strengthening dollar could cause an even bigger negative impact in 2014. However, currency impacts are a normal part of Philip Morris' business, and investors should not be too concerned about the company's long-term earning power because of a few bad years of exchange rate fluctuations.
Top 5 Airline Stocks For 2015: Telefonica SA(TEF)
Telefonica, S.A. provides fixed and mobile telephony services primarily in Spain, rest of Europe, and Latin America. Its fixed telecommunication services include PSTN lines; ISDN accesses; public telephone; local, domestic, and international long distance and fixed-to-mobile communications; corporate communications; video telephony; supplementary and business-oriented value-added services; network services; leasing and sale of handset equipment; and telephony information services. The company?s Internet and broadband multimedia services comprise Internet service provider service; portal and network services; retail and wholesale broadband access; narrowband switched access to Internet; naked ADSL, a broadband connection; residential-oriented value-added services; companies-oriented value-added services; television services, such as IPTV, cable television, and satellite television; and Fiber to the Home, a service for high speed Internet access and digital video recording. Its data and business-solutions services principally include leased lines; virtual private network services; fiber optics services; the provision of hosting and application; outsourcing and consultancy services; desktop services; and system integration and professional services. The company?s wholesale services for telecommunication operators primarily comprise domestic interconnection services; international wholesale services; leased lines for other operators? network deployment; local loop leasing under the unbundled local loop regulation framework; and bit stream services. It also offers various mobile and related services and products that include mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services. The company has a strategic alliance with China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited. Telefonica, S.A. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spai n.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Eric Volkman]
Ebix (NASDAQ: EBIX ) will be very busy in the near future doing work for a major South American telecom incumbent. The company announced that it has signed a deal with Telefonica's (NYSE: TEF ) Brazilian subsidiary Telefonica/Vivo (NYSE: VIV ) , also known as Telefonica Brasil,�to supply its services for the latter's eHealth Self Care initiative, which aims "to provide health assistance and complimentary services to their millions of clients." Ebix will utilize its A.D.A.M. Health Content Exchange solution to make this happen.
- [By Dan Caplinger]
With dividend stocks, however, you have no guarantee that there's no assurance that you'll receive a dividend. For instance, Spanish telecom company Telefonica (NYSE: TEF ) chose last year not to pay its planned dividend for 2012, saying it would restore half the payout later this year. Even stalwart blue-chips General Electric (NYSE: GE ) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) had to reduce their dividends dramatically during the financial crisis, and even now, they haven't risen back to their pre-crisis levels.
- [By Eric Volkman]
In the latest move in a broad deleveraging effort, Spanish telecom incumbent Telefonica (NYSE: TEF ) has divested one of its European subsidiaries. The company announced that it has reached agreement to sell Telefonica Ireland to Hong Kong-based conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa Group. The potential total price is 850 million euros ($1.1 billion), 780 million euros ($1.0 billion) of which will be handed over at the closing of the transaction while 70 million euros�($92 million) will take the form of a deferred payment to be transferred when certain financial objectives are met.
- [By Dan Caplinger]
Is Europe back?
Certainly, some of the enthusiasm about Europe has to do with the stabilization of economic prospects throughout the region. Germany, France, and Spain are still reporting sluggish GDP numbers, but some early signs suggest that the recession could already have hit bottom in many countries in Europe. Perhaps more importantly, just the fact that conditions on the continent haven't gotten markedly worse has seemed to bolster investor confidence. In particular, Spain's recovery has given investors in Telefonica (NYSE: TEF ) new hope that efforts to keep its telecom business strong not just in Europe but in Latin America as well could bear fruit.
5 Best European Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER)
AerCap Holdings N.V., through its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated aviation company worldwide. It engages in leasing and trading aircraft and engines; and selling parts. The company also provides aircraft management services, as well as aircraft and limited engine MRO services, and aircraft disassembly services through its repair stations. In addition, it offers aircraft services, including remarketing aircraft; collecting rental and maintenance payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews; inspecting the leased aircraft; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructurings negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and aircraft engine valuations; and providing market research. The company?s management services include leasing and remarketing, cash management and treasury, technical advisory, and accounting and administrative services. As of March 31, 2011, it owned 272 aircraft and 95 engines, which it leased under operating leases to 118 lessees in 53 countries. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Schiphol, the Netherlands.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Ben Levisohn]
Finally. Finally American International Group (AIG) has disposed of its ILFC unit by selling it to AerCap Holdings (AER).
Bloomberg NewsThe Wall Street Journal has the details on the deal:
- [By John Udovich]
Yesterday around midday,�Netherlands based aviation leasing stock�AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE: AER) began surging on rumors and closed up 11.6%, meaning its probably time to take a closer look at those rumors along with aviation leasing peers like small caps or mid caps�Aircastle Limited (NYSE: AYR), Air Lease Corp (NYSE: AL), Fly Leasing Ltd (NYSE: FLY) and AeroCentury Corp (NYSEMKT: ACY).
- [By Paul Ausick]
More than two years ago, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering (IPO) in its aircraft leasing group, International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC). That filing came to nothing, and AIG found little interest from buyers for ILFC, until Monday morning when it announced that AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE: AER) will buy the leasing operation for $3 billion in cash and 97.56 million shares of new AerCap stock. The total value of the deal is approximately $5.4 billion.
- [By Roberto Pedone]
AerCap (AER) provides aircraft leasing and aviation finance services. This stock closed up 3.3% at $18 in Wednesday's trading session.
Wednesday's Volume: 740,000
Three-Month Average Volume: 318,589
Volume % Change: 85%From a technical perspective, AER jumped higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $17.27 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last five months, with shares moving higher from its low of $14.84 to its recent high of $18.16. During that uptrend, shares of AER have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of AER within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if AER manages to take out its 52-week high at $18.16 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AER as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $17.27 or above more near-term support at $17.17 and then once it sustains a move or close above its 52-week high at $18.16 with volume that's near or above 318,589 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then AER will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $20 to $23.
5 Best European Stocks To Invest In Right Now: BP p.l.c.(BP)
BP p.l.c. provides fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services, and petrochemicals products. Its Exploration and Production segment engages in the oil and natural gas exploration, field development, and production; midstream transportation, and storage and processing; and marketing and trading of natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), and power and natural gas liquids (NGL). This segment has exploration and production activities in Angola, Azerbaijan, Canada, Egypt, Norway, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as in Asia, Australasia, South America, North Africa, and the Middle East. This segment also owns and manages crude oil and natural gas pipelines; processing facilities and export terminals; and LNG processing and transportation, as well as NGL extraction facilities. BP p.l.c. has interests in the Trans-Alaska pipeline system, the Forties pipeline system, the Central Area transmission sys tem pipeline, the South Caucasus Pipeline, and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, as well as in LNG plants located in Trinidad, Indonesia, and Australia. The company?s Refining and Marketing segment involves in the supply and trading, refining, manufacturing, marketing, and transportation of crude oil, petroleum, and petrochemicals products and related services to wholesale and retail customers primarily under the BP, Castrol, ARCO, and Aral brands. Its Other Businesses and Corporate segment produces and markets rolled aluminum products, as well as generates energy through wind, solar, biofuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage sources; and engages in shipping activities. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Canadian Value]
To quantify the relationship between real gold prices and real yields, we can regress the price of gold from 2006 to 2013 (we used the logarithm of the real price of gold in our model) against the 10-year real yield from the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market. (In our view, this regression is appropriate since gold and real yields are co-integrated and there is an economic rationale for believing they should be.) Based on our study, the regression shows that, all else equal, a 100-basis-point (bp) increase in 10-year real yields has historically led to a decline of 26.8% in the inflation-adjusted price of gold. In other words, over the past seven years gold has had a real duration of 26.8 years. (Note that this is solely an empirical duration that describes the way that gold has traded. Since gold has no cash flows, its duration does not need to be constant, and there is nothing magic about the 26.8 number. Just as the correlation between stocks and bonds varies over time depending on changes in macroeconomic variables and investor risk appetite, the real duration of gold may also change in the future.)
- [By John Reese, Founder and CEO, Validea.com And Validea Capital Management]
As you might imagine, the portfolio will tread into areas of the market others ignore, because of its contrarian bent. Right now, its holdings include some very unloved firms, including several financials, emerging market stocks, and much-maligned BP. Here's a look at five of the stock in our Dreman portfolio:
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
BP Plc (BP)
Telecom Argentina SA (TEO)
China Mobile Limited (CHL)
Vale SA (VALE)
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5 Best European Stocks To Invest In Right Now: TotalFinaElf S.A.(TOT)
TOTAL S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated oil and gas company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. It also involves in the transportation, trade, and marketing of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as in LNG re-gasification and natural gas storage operations. In addition, this segment engages in the shipping and trade of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG); power generation from gas-fired power plants, nuclear, or renewable energies; production, trade, and marketing of coal, as well as in solar power systems and technology operations. As of December 31, 2010, it had combined proved reserves of 10,695 Mboe of oil and gas. The Downstream segment involves in refining, marketing, trading, and shipping crude oil and petroleum products. It also produces a range of specialty products, s uch as lubricants, LPG, jet fuel, special fluids, bitumen, marine fuels, and petrochemical feedstock. This segment holds interests in 24 refineries located in Europe, the United States, the French West Indies, Africa, and China, as well as operates a network of 17,490 service stations. The Chemicals segment produces base chemicals, including petrochemicals and fertilizers, as well as engages in rubber processing, resins, adhesives, and electroplating activities. TOTAL S.A. was founded in 1924 and is based in Paris, France.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Dan Caplinger]
You can see the same trends among many individual European stocks. Telecom giant Telefonica (NYSE: TEF ) has big exposure to Latin America, but investors focus on its home country of Spain in limiting its gains. The same trend has affected French oil giant Total (NYSE: TOT ) , which shares the same exposure to energy projects around the world yet has been tarnished by its proximity to the crisis-ridden continent. By focusing on value rather than perception, you can get some great values when others are being irrational.
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